Global human development has improved, partly due to the transformative wave of globalization. However, despite progress in poverty reduction over the past two decades, recent United Nations SDG reports highlight substantial setbacks among developing countries, especially low- and middle-income economies. This study investigates the threshold impact of globalization benefits on poverty and demonstrates the non-linearity of the benefits to poverty at different regimes of institutional quality. The Hansen panel threshold model is employed to analyze data of 116 developing countries from 2000 to 2021, with complementary regional estimates. The reliability and validity of the findings are reinforced using panel-corrected standard errors and dynamic GMM estimators as robustness checks. The results establish non-linear poverty-reducing benefits of globalization, with more pronounced impacts under high global interconnectedness. Additionally, the study provides nuanced evidence of globalization's diminishing marginal social welfare returns to poverty at higher thresholds of integration. Finally, it argues that strong institutions are essential to amplify globalization benefits towards achieving sustainable development goal 1 and to mitigate the negative externalities associated with intensified globalization.

In this paper, we re-examine the Phillips curve for Canada from June 1976 to October 2022 in a time-varying manner. Our findings reveal that the impulse response of inflation to the changes in the unemployment rate gap has reduced over time till 2010 and strengthened thereafter. The response of inflation to the changes in the unemployment rate gap has increased in short and medium horizons after 2010. On further examination, we find that changes in both average import tariff and forward participation in the global value chain have reduced the inflation response to the changes in the unemployment rate gap. Empty 10.

Purpose: In this paper, we study the effect of global energy and food inflation on household inflation expectations during the period 1988M01–2020M03 for a set of European economies. Design/methodology/approach: We use multifractal de-trended cross-correlation analysis to estimate the non-linear and time-varying cross-correlation. We provide additional robustness tests using the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag method. Findings: We find that household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are all multifractal. We also find that the household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are positively correlated (i.e., they are persistent). However, household inflation expectations respond more when the volatility of the global energy inflation is lower than when the volatility is higher. The correlation between household inflation expectations and global food inflation does not depend on the level of volatility. Research limitations/implications: First, paying attention to the global commodity inflation might help anchor inflation expectations better. It is so because Central Bank's efficacy in achieving price stability may be weakened if there is a relationship between commodity inflation and inflation expectation. This task would become even more difficult in the average inflation targeting regime than inflation targeting regime if actual inflation is persistently different from the target inflation. Second, our results also emphasize the importance of effective strategy for communicating to households about actual inflation, inflation target and keep them updated about how monetary policy functions. Originality/value: We contribute to the literature by estimating the cross-correlation between household inflation expectations with the global commodity inflation, conditional to the volatility of the commodity inflation under consideration.

Well-anchored inflation expectations play an important role in the achievement of price stability. The (de-)anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the US has been under debate since the sub-prime crisis. This paper assesses and explains the evolution of the degree of (de-)anchorage of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US during the period of 1990 to 2019, in a time-varying framework. We find the long-term inflation expectations to be de-anchored during the entire study period. The de-anchorage was greater in the first half of the 1990s. Subsequently, it has declined but has not yet anchored. An increase in inflation perception reduces the degree of de-anchorage in a (persistently) low-inflation perception period, whereas it causes a rise in the degree of de-anchorage when inflation perception is around its long-term average or is persistently high. Further, a rise in economic policy uncertainty also increases the de-anchorage of households’ long-term inflation expectations. This suggests that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) may find it beneficial to pay more attention to households’ inflation perception.